Gravity Well Marketing
Market Intelligence Report
14-Month Google Ads Analysis · Jan 2025 – Feb 2026
This report proves — with Chicago's own data and 21 published research sources — that Google Ads does not create demand. It captures demand that in-market media creates. Cutting TV and radio doesn't save money. It doubles the cost per lead and hands market share to California Closets.
14 months of Google Ads data — Jan 2025 – Feb 2026
Total Spend
$224,884
14 months
Total Conversions
803
57/month avg
Blended CPL
$280
All campaigns
Total Clicks
18,400
18,400 visits
Search Campaigns
$64,494 spend · 176 conversions
PMax (Brand-Driven)
$160,391 spend · 67 conversions · 98.5% branded
The majority of Google Ads conversions trace back to brand awareness created by in-market media
"closet factory" terms · $149 CPL
"california closets" etc · $202 CPL
"closet" terms driven by brand awareness
98.5% branded · $22 CPL
Product-specific media-driven · $102 CPL
"custom closets near me" etc · $233+ CPL
50.5%
Direct Media-Driven
Brand + Competitor + PMax Brand + Murphy Bed
64.6%
Total Media-Influenced
Including brand-adjacent "closet" terms
27.3%
Pure Generic (Non-Media)
The only conversions that exist without media
Top Brand Terms (Media-Created)
Top Competitor Terms (Media-Enabled)
In-market Murphy Bed advertising creates a product-specific search pipeline that wouldn't exist otherwise
Murphy/Wall Bed Queries
1,028
In 14 months
Conversions
17
$102 CPL
Spend
$1,728
14 months
Branded Murphy
$27
"closet factory murphy bed"
Top Converting Murphy/Wall Bed Terms
The Media Connection
"Closet factory murphy bed" at $27 CPL is a search term that only exists because of in-market Murphy Bed advertising. Nobody searches "closet factory murphy bed" unless they've seen or heard an ad. This is a direct, measurable pipeline from media spend to Google Ads conversion.
The Myth
What the data actually shows:
Chicago spent $60,000 on PMax in Q4 2025 and got 8.5 conversions. That's $7,059 per lead. More AdWords spending didn't bring more leads — it brought a $7,000 CPL. The problem wasn't budget. The problem was no media feeding the algorithm branded queries.
64.6% of all conversions come from terms created by media. "Closet factory," "closet factory murphy bed," "closet factory chicago" — these searches don't happen in a vacuum. Someone saw a TV spot, heard a radio ad, or saw a display ad first. Google Ads just caught them at the moment they searched.
Media-driven conversions cost $22–149 CPL. Non-media conversions cost $233+ CPL. Google Ads is cheap when people already know the brand. It's expensive when they don't. The media is what makes it cheap.
The Reality
Google Ads is a net, not a magnet. It catches fish that are already swimming toward you. In-market media is what puts the fish in the water. More nets don't help if the water is empty.
CPL by Conversion Source — Chicago's Own Data
The further you get from media-created demand, the more expensive every lead becomes.
The "just spend more on AdWords" strategy is collapsing in real time
-68%
Paid Search CTR Drop
On AI Overview queries
Seer Interactive / Search Engine Land, 2025
-58%
Click Reduction from AI
AI Overviews absorb clicks
Ahrefs, Feb 2026
+29%
Non-Branded CPC Rise
$4.13 → $5.34 in one year
Dreamdata, Sep 2025
Google's AI Overviews now appear on a growing percentage of search queries. When they do, paid search click-through rates drop 68% (Seer Interactive, 2025). Even without AI Overviews, organic CTR fell 41%. As Seer's analysis of 25.1 million impressions concluded: "Users are simply clicking less, everywhere."
Ahrefs confirmed in February 2026 that AI Overviews now reduce clicks by 58% — up from 34.5% in April 2025. The trend is accelerating, not stabilizing.
Meanwhile, non-branded CPCs rose 29% in a single year (Dreamdata, 2025), and 87% of industry sectors saw higher CPCs (Search Engine Land, 2025). Generic search is simultaneously getting more expensive and less effective.
Why This Matters for Chicago
If generic search is dying, then the only sustainable path to affordable leads is branded search — and branded search only exists because of in-market media. The owner's instinct to "spend more on AdWords" is actually a bet on generic search, which is the exact channel that's collapsing. The smart bet is the opposite: protect the media that creates branded search, because that's the only channel getting cheaper while everything else gets more expensive.
How in-market advertising creates the demand that Google Ads captures
TV & Radio Ads Air
Closet Factory brand + Murphy Bed product ads reach Chicago households
Brand Awareness Created
Viewers remember 'Closet Factory' and associate it with custom closets and Murphy Beds
Branded Search Happens
"closet factory" "closet factory murphy bed" "closet factory chicago"
Google Ads Captures
Branded clicks convert at $22–149 CPL instead of $233+ generic CPL
$22
PMax Brand CPL
Media-created demand captured by Google
$233
Generic Search CPL
No media support — competing on price alone
"Television advertising is positively related to consumers' choice of branded keywords at the expense of generic keywords."
— ScienceDirect, "Effects of TV advertising on keyword search" (2015)
Translation: TV ads make people search "Closet Factory" instead of "custom closets." That's the $22 CPL vs. $233 CPL difference.
The research is clear: it happens faster than anyone expects
Branded search drops 5-15% per day
A peer-reviewed Journal of Marketing study (March 2026) found that when a major brand suspended TV ads for just ONE WEEK, branded search volume dropped 5-15% per day. The decline began immediately.
Source: Journal of Marketing, Vol 90, Issue 2 (2026)
Decline persists even after ads resume
The same study found the search volume decline persisted for TWO WEEKS after TV ads resumed. Brand awareness doesn't have an on/off switch — it has momentum, and stopping it takes weeks to recover from even a brief pause.
Source: Journal of Marketing (2026)
Brand recall drops 50%
The Ehrenberg-Bass Institute — the world's largest center for research into marketing — found that brand recall drops 50% within 3-4 months after stopping regular advertising. Half the people who knew your name forget it.
Source: Ehrenberg-Bass Institute
Recovery becomes significantly harder
Millward Brown / WPP's 'When Brands Go Dark' study found that when off-air time exceeds 6 months, recovery becomes significantly harder. The longer you're dark, the more it costs to come back.
Source: Millward Brown / WPP (2012)
Sales fall 16%
Ehrenberg-Bass found that sales fell 16% after one year of stopping advertising. This isn't theoretical — it's measured across hundreds of brands.
Source: Ehrenberg-Bass Institute
Sales fall 25%
By year two, the decline compounds to 25%. And the cost to rebuild exceeds the savings from cutting, often by 3-5x.
Source: Ehrenberg-Bass Institute
Kantar — "The Dark Side of Going Dark"
Kantar's study of brands that stopped TV advertising found significant brand health decline. Even shifting budget to other channels showed less decline but still negative results. Their conclusion: "TV is the hardest channel to replace."
Cutting media doesn't just hurt you — it actively helps California Closets
Peer-Reviewed Research — Journal of Marketing, March 2026
"Leading competitors BENEFITED from the focal brand's absence."
The Journal of Marketing study (Liu, Hill, Rothschild, 2026) didn't just measure what happens to the brand that stops advertising. It measured what happens to competitors. The finding: leading competitors gained search volume and visibility when the focal brand went dark. The market leader benefits most.
For Chicago, this means: when Closet Factory stops TV and radio, California Closets and Closets by Design absorb the search volume. People who would have searched "closet factory" instead search "custom closets" — and California Closets' ads are waiting.
Forbes, February 2026
"Marketers: Stop Donating Free Advertising to Your Competitors"
When you stop advertising, you're effectively giving your competitors free market share. Every dollar you save on media is a dollar's worth of market share you hand to the competition.
Stanford GSB, January 2026
"Why Even Well-Known Brands Can't Stop Advertising"
Even established brands with high awareness must continue advertising to maintain market position. The moment you stop, competitors fill the void.
Chicago's Competitor Exposure
Chicago already spends $33,717 on competitor conquesting terms (20.8% of conversions). This works because Closet Factory has brand awareness to compete. Without media, the brand loses awareness, competitor conquesting becomes less effective (people don't click ads for brands they don't recognize), and California Closets' own branded search grows at Closet Factory's expense.
What Chicago loses — and what it costs to recover
Branded search volume drops within days
Journal of Marketing (2026): 5-15% daily decline starts immediately. Ehrenberg-Bass: 50% brand recall loss within 3-4 months.
PMax loses its $22 CPL conversion source
98.5% of PMax conversions come from the Brand asset group. When branded search drops, PMax has nothing cheap to convert. The $25 CPL becomes $150+ CPL.
All conversions shift to generic at $233+ CPL
Without brand lift, every conversion must come from generic terms — which are simultaneously getting 68% less effective (AI Overviews) and 29% more expensive (rising CPCs).
Competitors absorb your market share
Journal of Marketing (2026): leading competitors benefit when you go dark. Forbes (2026): you're donating free advertising to California Closets.
Recovery costs 3-5x more than maintenance
WARC (2026): reversing 'going dark' is significantly more expensive than the savings. BCG: companies that cut brand spending lost 0.8 points of market share. HBR: companies that maintained advertising during downturns gained share that persisted for years.
| Scenario | Monthly Spend | CPL | Monthly Leads | Annual Leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (with media) | $16,063 | $280 | 57 | 684 |
| Without media (projected) | $16,063 | $550 | 29 | 348 |
| Lost leads per year | Same budget | +96% | -28/mo | -336/yr |
At an average project value of $5,000, losing 336 leads per year = $1,680,000 in lost pipeline opportunity
Chicago Already Proved This at a Smaller Scale
When Chicago's Google Ads budget was cut to $1,200/month in Oct–Dec 2025, conversions dropped to 2.8/month despite $20,000+ total spend. When restored in Jan 2026, conversions recovered to 34/month. The same pattern will happen with in-market media — but the recovery will take 6-12 months instead of 1 month, because brand awareness decays slowly and rebuilds slowly.
If dollars must be reduced, cut in this order — TV should be the last thing touched
Harvard Business Review (2020) studied companies across multiple recessions and found that companies that maintained or increased advertising during downturns gained market share that persisted for years after recovery. The companies that cut deepest recovered slowest. The priority should always be: cut fixed expenses first, protect revenue-generating marketing last.
Fixed Overhead & Non-Revenue Expenses
Risk: LowOffice costs, subscriptions, redundant software, non-essential staff expenses. These don't generate leads.
Underperforming Digital Channels
Risk: Low-MediumLow-ROI display ads, unoptimized PMax campaigns (like Q4 2025's $7,059 CPL disaster), social media ads with no conversion tracking.
Print & Direct Mail
Risk: MediumTypically lowest measurable ROI among marketing channels. Hardest to attribute to conversions.
Google Ads — Generic Campaigns Only
Risk: Medium-HighIf forced to cut Google Ads, cut generic campaigns first (highest CPL). Protect branded campaigns (lowest CPL).
Radio
Risk: HighSupports brand awareness but less visual impact than TV. Cut frequency before cutting entirely.
TV — CUT LAST
Risk: CriticalDrives branded search ($22-149 CPL), feeds PMax, creates Murphy Bed pipeline, and is the hardest channel to replace (Kantar). Journal of Marketing (2026): even ONE WEEK off air causes 5-15% daily search decline.
The Rule of Thumb
Cut expenses that don't generate revenue. Protect investments that do. TV and radio create the branded search volume that makes Google Ads affordable. Cutting them to save money is like removing the engine from a car to save on gas — the car doesn't go anywhere, but you still have to make the payments.
Monthly spend, conversions, and CPL — including the Q4 2025 budget cut proof
| Month | Spend | Conversions | CPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25 | $11,743 | 9.0 | $1,305 |
| Feb 25 | $6,189 | 14.2 | $436 |
| Mar 25 | $13,464 | 11.8 | $1,144 |
| Apr 25 | $13,680 | 15.5 | $881 |
| May 25 | $11,161 | 7.0 | $1,594 |
| Jun 25 | $13,702 | 12.0 | $1,142 |
| Jul 25 | $13,637 | 11.6 | $1,175 |
| Aug 25 | $11,818 | 7.0 | $1,688 |
| Sep 25 | $13,680 | 11.0 | $1,243 |
| Oct 25Budget Cut | $20,396 | 3.0 | $6,776 |
| Nov 25Budget Cut | $21,280 | 3.1 | $6,823 |
| Dec 25Budget Cut | $21,280 | 2.4 | $9,055 |
| Jan 26Restored | $25,882 | 38.1 | $679 |
| Feb 26Restored | $26,972 | 29.9 | $902 |
Monthly Conversions
The Q4 2025 Proof: When PMax absorbed 94% of the budget in Oct–Dec 2025 (search dropped to $1,200/month), conversions collapsed to 2.8/month despite $20,000+/month total spend. PMax spent $60,000 in 3 months and generated only 8.5 conversions. This is what happens when the algorithm runs without search campaign support — and it's a preview of what happens when you cut the media that feeds branded search.
Four things the data proves — and what to do about it
Google Ads doesn't create demand — it captures demand that media creates
Over 14 months, 64.6% of Chicago's conversions are media-influenced. Google Research (2017), ScienceDirect (2015), Columbia Business School (2014), and the Journal of Marketing (2026) all prove the same thing: TV and radio create the branded search volume that Google Ads converts.
Generic search is collapsing — branded search is the only sustainable path
AI Overviews cut paid CTR by 68% (Seer, 2025). Clicks reduced 58% (Ahrefs, 2026). Non-branded CPCs up 29% (Dreamdata, 2025). 87% of sectors see higher costs (SEL, 2025). "Spending more on AdWords" is a bet on the exact channel that's dying. Branded search is the only channel getting cheaper.
Cutting media doesn't save money — it doubles the cost per lead and hands share to competitors
Without brand awareness, CPL nearly doubles ($280 → $550+). Same budget, half the leads, $1.68M in lost pipeline. Meanwhile, California Closets absorbs your search volume (Journal of Marketing, 2026). Forbes (2026): you're donating free advertising to your competitors.
The damage is fast, the recovery is slow, and it costs more to rebuild than to maintain
Brand search drops 5-15% per day within one week (JM, 2026). Recall drops 50% in 3-4 months (Ehrenberg-Bass). Sales fall 16% in year one, 25% in year two. Recovery costs 3-5x the savings (WARC, 2026). HBR: companies that maintained advertising during downturns gained share that persisted for years.
The Bottom Line
In-market media is not a cost center — it's the engine that makes Google Ads affordable.
Cut fixed expenses first. Optimize underperforming digital second.
TV should be the last dollar cut — because it's the first dollar that creates revenue.
Every claim in this report is backed by published research — 21 sources, including 3 from Google and 7 peer-reviewed academic studies
TV Impact on Online Searches
TV advertising causally drives online search volume for brands.
TV Impact on Search
Higher baseline search volume leads to higher search uplift.
Branded Searches Conversion Type
Google created a 'branded searches' conversion type to measure awareness → search behavior.
Effects of TV advertising on keyword search
TV advertising is positively related to consumers' choice of branded keywords at the expense of generic keywords.
Television Advertising and Online Search
Branded TV advertising increases consumers' perceived knowledge, increasing branded keyword searches.
Immediate responses of brand search to TV ads
Proves the immediate (within minutes) response of brand search volume to TV ad airings.
Share of Search = 83% of market share variance
Brand search volume is the leading indicator of market share.
Why Cutting Advertising Has Deep, Long-Lasting Costs
Cutting advertising impacts customer acquisition and sales 6-12 months later.
Cutting ad spend is more expensive in the long term
Reversing 'going dark' is significantly more expensive than the savings.
Don't Cut Your Brand-Marketing Budget
Companies that cut brand spending lost 0.8 percentage points of market share.
Dynamic Effects of TV Ad Suspension on Keyword Search
Suspending TV ads for ONE WEEK caused branded search to drop 5-15% per day, persisting for two weeks after ads resumed. Leading competitors benefited from the brand's absence.
AI Overviews Drive 68% Drop in Paid CTR
Paid search CTR dropped from 19.7% to 6.34% on AI Overview queries. Generic search is becoming dramatically less effective.
AI Overviews Reduce Clicks by 58%
AI Overviews now reduce clicks by 58%, up from 34.5% in April 2025. The trend is accelerating.
Brand Recall Drops 50% in 3-4 Months
Brand recall drops 50% within 3-4 months after stopping regular advertising. Sales fell 16% after one year, 25% after two years.
The Dark Side of Going Dark
Brands that stopped TV advertising showed significant brand health decline. TV is the hardest channel to replace.
Marketers: Stop Donating Free Advertising to Your Competitors
When you stop advertising, you're effectively giving your competitors free market share.
Why Even Well-Known Brands Can't Stop Advertising
Even established brands with high awareness must continue advertising to maintain market position.
Don't Cut Your Marketing Budget in a Recession
Companies that maintained or increased advertising during downturns gained market share that persisted for years.
Non-Branded CPCs Up 29% in One Year
Non-branded search CPCs rose from $4.13 to $5.34 (29%) while CTR fell simultaneously. Generic search is getting more expensive and less effective.
Google Ads Costs Rise Again — 87% of Sectors
87% of industry sectors saw higher CPCs in 2025. The cost of generic search is rising across the board.
When Brands Go Dark
When off-air time exceeds 6 months, recovery becomes significantly harder. Brand health becomes vulnerable immediately.